China copies su-27?

Download China copies su-27? photo. Find China copies su-27? images.

Wallpaper China copies su-27?

There has been several articles recently critiquing J-11B. I thought I'd take the time to debunk some of the theories on them.

The first one comes from a Russian newspaper

A copy of the Su-27 fighter has recently been assembled in China, but the mass production is not yet started, the Vesti newspaper reports. If China manages to launch production of the Russian jet in series they may become a Russian competitor at third-party markets and it will be difficult to prove the violation of copyright.

Since 1992 Russia has sold China 76 Su-27SK fighters and a license for production of another 200 aircrafts that have been produced in Shenyang as J-11 planes with the use of Russian components since 1996.

Richard Fisher, expert of the US Center for Security Policy said in 2003 the fully Chinese J-11 was being elaborated in China that would require ten years. But China finished the work faster. “The progress in jets manufacturing technology let increase the share of China produced components and technologies from 70-75% to more than 90%,”- the Rosoboronexport (Russian arms exporting agency) plenipotentiary in China Andrei Plotnikov reported in the magazine Problems of the Far East. The work over the domestic Tai Hang WS-10 jet similar to the Russian AL-31F was completed by the AVIC I holding in 2006.

Rosoboronexport refuses to comment on the situation. The fact of copying Su-27 was also rejected in the Chinese Embassy in Russia and PRC State Defense Science and Industry Commission, the Vedomosti newspaper reports.

Konstantin Makiyenko from the Russian Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies says that Su-27 and its variant Su-30 are the base of the Russia’s arms export. Last year’s sale of fighter jets and equipment gave about 50% of the Rosoboronexport’s exports revenues. If China manages to launch production of the Russian jet in series it will easily push Russia from third-party markets, and it will be difficult to prove the violation of copyright.

China has been producing licensed and non-licensed copies of the Soviet aircrafts for a long time. The Chinese J-6 and J-7 fighters were designed after MiG-19 and MiG-21, H-6 bomber - after Tu-16 Badger, and Y-5, Y-7 and Y-8 - after An-2 Colt, An-24 Coke and An-12 Cub, respectively

I think the fear here is that China will start to produce its own flankers and somehow overtake the Russians in the arms export market. However, there is no indication at the moment that China is willing to export it or has the production capacity to produce for domestic + export needs. I've read numerous questions about whether or not J-11B would be exported to Pakistan. Frankly, it's not going to happen for the above reasons. As for the violation of copy right, I don't think that will ever be an issue, since I don't think they will be exporting any. However, the Russians will be feeling pain on this situation, because China will no longer be paying it royalty or buying parts from it. As for the comment about China needing 10 years to clone flankers, it shows a slight mis-comprehension of the entire situation. If China needs to wait until 2013 to clone J-11B, then why bother? If needs 10 years to clone a fighter, why not just design a brand new fighter?

Anyhow, the more interesting article came from our friend Andrei Chang/Pinkov.

HONG KONG, China, Based on the design of the Russian Sukhoi Su-27SK fighter, China has come up with its own domestic version, the J-11B multi-function fighter. Three J-11B prototypes have been manufactured since 2006. After their factory flight tests, they have been evaluated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force 1st Fighter Division, based in Anshan in China's northeast Liaoning province.
A Chinese military industry source has confirmed that pre-production of the fighters will begin this year. "We will not need to assemble more Su-27SKs, because it is old technology given from Russia," the source said.

The J-11B has undergone drastic changes from the original Russian design. A source from the Chinese aerospace industry says that except for the Russian-made engines, 90 percent of the major subsystems fitted on the J-11B, including the radar and optical electronic systems, are made by China. The Chinese aviation company AVIC 1 has already completed testing the 1474 serial radar system to be deployed in the J-11B. The fighter's weapons will also integrate indigenous systems.

A Chinese pilot with more than 20 years of flight experience expressed his high opinion of the Su-27 fighter, describing it as "very easy to fly."

However, as the source from the Chinese military industry points out, some of the parts used on the Su-27SK have a very short lifespan, which has led to a high rate of technical accidents. For instance, frequent problems with the fighter's infrared search and track system have restricted its use in the regular training of combat forces.

To investigate this issue, the author paid a special visit to the Ural Optical and Mechanical Complex in Ekaterinburg, Russia. A Russian source revealed that the company had signed two contracts with a Chinese company to supply parts for an updated IRST system, the OLS-31E. Execution of the contract, valued at US$1 million, began in 2007.

Research and development of the China-made IRST system to be fitted on the J-11B fighters is already completed. The physical appearance of this new IRST is very close to the original Russian OLS-31E, making it appear to be an imitation edition of the Russian system with some upgrades. In fact, the overall performance of the J-11B is now on a par with the Russian-edition Su-27SMK.

The J-11B's fire control radar system uses mechanical scanning, integrates more functions and features a modular design. The fighter also features substantial changes in the fire control system and the cockpit so the J-11B will be able to fire China's indigenous PL-12 air-to-air missiles and a whole series of other precision-guided weapons. The cockpit has three large color multifunctional displays and two small color multifunctional displays.

In recent years, China's pace of development in airborne equipment has been very fast. The design of its J-10B cockpit has been quite precocious; the rear cockpit seems to have four multifunctional color displays and two small multifunctional displays.

In addition, the J-11B will be fitted with China's indigenous strapdown inertial navigation system, 3-axix data system, power supply system, emergency power unit, brake system, hydraulic system, fuel system, environment control system and molecular sieve oxygen generation systems.

The fact that China is producing a large proportion of the J-11B parts domestically indicates that its demand for parts imported from Russia will decline dramatically during the second phase of the fighter's production. Also, some of the subsystems and equipment are compatible with those used in the J-10A and J-10B fighters.

It is expected that the J-11B's flight control system will also be manufactured in China. This was the leading reason why Russia could not determine whether China would continue to produce Su-27SK fighters in the next phase. In reality, the joint contract between Russia and China for the Su-27SK/J-11 development has now been virtually abandoned by the Chinese side without any consultation with Russia.

The first thing that jumped out to me is the part about 3 J-11B prototypes manufactured since 2006. Well, the truth is that J-11B was seen testing in CFTE in all of 2006. In fact, there were probably at least that number before 2007. And the second part is that we saw J-11B appearing in the first division air base recently. That + a host of AVIC1 articles tell us that J-11B is now joining service finally. Also, Pinkov often maintain this theory that J-11B uses Russian engine based on the recent 180 engine order. But as I've always maintained, that set of engines are to service the existing fleet of flankers. As we know, AL-31F's service life is really nothing to talk about, so it's logical that they would seek replacements at this time. As far as we know, J-11B is using WS-10A now and will be doing so for the future. We've had a plethora of articles recently talking about the success of the WS-10A project including a ramp up on production (to possibly 100 in 2008), so that's more than enough to cover J-11B + large number of J-10 for this coming year.

The other theory that Pinkov has is that J-11B is on par with su-27SMK and not on the same level as su-35. I have mentionned in past articles on why saying J-11B is inferior to su-35 is a really bad way to look at things. The reality is that something like su-27SMK simply cannot match the requirement of PLAAF, when the much cheaper J-10 is far superior in air combat than it. In terms of radar, avionics, T/W ratio, ability to fire Chinese weapons, su-27SMK simply doesn't match up with J-11B. And with the results coming out regarding J-10 vs MKK, I really don't think having something of the same level as MKK would impress any of the top brass in PLAAF.

Also on su-35, I really hope that nobody in PLAAF is delusional enough to think that it has a chance against F-22. If something like that starts to get inducted in 2012 (and that's a very optimistic estimation), PLAAF will simply be overpaying for another fighter that cannot match up against F-22/35 in a possible confrontation. Like? China copies su-27? for wallpaper? Shar this image to China copies su-27? for your friend.

The Submarine Threat

Download The Submarine Threat photo. Find The Submarine Threat images.

Wallpaper The Submarine Threat

In the media, we have often heard about the growing submarine threat from China. How much of a threat is this really going to be. I don't profess to know the answer of this question, but I can possibly examine what PLAN's underwater fleet will look like in the next few years.

First, we can start with the imported subs, since their status is relatively transparent. We know that China imported 2 873 and 2 636 submarines in the 90s. I think the first 2 was originally destined for Soviet navy, whereas the second 2 are the improved export versions of kilo. These should all be superior in acoustic level to the previous Soviet exported kilos. The 8 new kilos that were delivered in 2006 are most likely similar to the 2 636 in terms of acoustic, but its combat system and sonar are upgraded. In fact, the major improvement for these boats was supposed to be the much advertised Club missile (or Sizzler as USN calls it). Interesting enough, they had trouble with this missile right from the start. Supposedly, they have to make fixes/upgrades to each batch of Club missile they received. In a way, it is not too surprising this is done, because many people have speculated that China has upgraded the sonar/combat system. We've seen kilo subs spending long periods of time in the docks of major submarine building shipyards like JN. Either way, we have only recently received a report on 1 successful firing of Club missile from 636M. Either way, these 12 kilos will be expected to serve ESF and SSF in the coming years.

Secondly, the 039 series of submarines are China's most recent diesel subs. This is one of the best illustration of Chinese military advances in the past decade. When the original 039 was launched in 1994, it happened to suffer many problems. And acoustically speaking, it probably wasn't really a shining moment in PLAN history. After that, we saw 3 more 039 of a new variant coming out from 2001-2003 with several noticeable changes (including a new sail). And after that, we had 3 years of mass production of a slightly modified variant of 039 with changes like drainage hole alignment, the curvature joining sail to the hull, upgraded sonar and combat systems. By the way, I have to give props to Crobato for summarizing all the differences. These 3 variants are what western observers typically refer to as the Song class. The final variant numbered anything from 8 to 12, so we are probably looking at a total of 12 to 16 Songs. Although, the difference between the pennant of the first Song and the first Yuan would indicate a maximum of 20 units. Kanwa apparently believes that there are 12 Songs, because its contacts with MTU indicated 12 set of engines (MTU 16V-396) exported for Song. In 2004, we saw the launching of the first 039A (aka Yuan) sub. It appeared to be double hulled and larger than Song subs. It featured a kilo like hump and was dubbed the "Chinese kilo" and "Chinese Amur" by different observers. However PLA seemed to look at it as just an upgraded Song. According to several people much more knowledgeable than I, Yuan does not represent a generational leap over Song in acoustic level. This is not too surprising, since PLAN favours more of an incremental improvement approach rather than a generational improvement approach. This new 039A went through probably 2 years of sea tests before joining PLAN. It features a generally more hydrodynamic looking hull, flank array sonar + AIP engines (at least reportedly). We waited for 3 years before firm evidence of new Yuan units being launched in JN and Wuhan. As seen in the recent photos, there are at least 2 units of a new 039A variant (with changes in drainage holes, sail modifications, flank array sonar placements) launched in the past couple of months. We've just recently saw another 039A unit of this improved variant that already seemed to have joined ESF. We've also seen possibly a new major modification of 039 series (possibly 039B?) in Wuhan with a different looking hump, possibly larger hull and possibly other changes (we need more photos!). In my opinion, this new 039B submarine probably will need about 2 years of sea tests before mass production. So, we might see a couple of years 039A mass production (meaning around 3 a year) before 039B is put into mass production. With all the 033s and early 035s retiring, it's hard to see them not mass producing the improved 039A. By 2010, we will probably see the lone 039B + 7 to 9 039As + 12 to 16 039s. (I guess 20 to 25 039s)?

Thirdly, what about 033 and 035s? Most of the Ming class subs are still relatively new hulls (like Jiangwei of submarine) and can do the role of patrol, surveillance, laying mine and distract more powerful subs from the quieter 039 class. From the above estimates, there will be about 35 3rd generation subs in 2010. According to sinodefence, there are currently 17 035s serving in NSF and SSF. I would expect most of them to still be service in 2010, but 033s to be retired. Of course, there may be some other 033s remaining active in a training role. So, PLAN will have a conventional fleet of around 50 submarines in 2010.

Fourthly, what will be the future of Chinese conventional submarines? This is really a complex question, because many people suspect 039 maybe the last series of pure diesel submarines with PLAN. We've heard anything from going strictly nuclear in the future like USN to producing min-nuke subs for hi-lo combination to Magnetohydrodynamics submarines. To be honest, most of these ideas sound pretty crazy to me. I do think China will go for more nuclear submarines in the future as it seeks to project more power, but the long Chinese coastline will always provide the need for the cheaper and defensive diesel submarines. Even so, I'm not sure when we will see the successor series to 039.

Finally, what have we really learnt about the nuclear submarines? If the recent Google Earth pictures told us anything, it would be that there are more 093s/094s out there than all the unclassified Western sources indicated. We've seen pictures of 3 094s docked Huludao and another dao recently. We've also seen evidences for probably at least 5 093s (2 in service, 1 in google earth photo docked, another in dry dock and another about to be transported to dry dock). A source on Chinese bbs said a few months back that there were 5 093s and 3 094s launched at the end of 2005. I would say that it was a shocking revelation at the time, but the Google Earth photos seem to corroborate with that. At the same time, he said there will be 8 093/095s and 5 094s launched by the end of 2010. You may be shocked by the mention of 095 here, but we've seen a company involved in the 095 project accidentally leaked the news that it's suppose to finish development of 095's reactor vessel in the 5 year plan of 2006-10. So, it's not too shocking that the first 095 might be launched by 2010. Of course, it might be another 3 to 4 years before 095 can join service. Now, if we include the 3 serving 091Gs and 2 092s, there will be around 18 nuclear submarines by 2010 (although not all of them will be in service).

The recent years have been a period where much of the old Chinese submarine fleet have been replaced with newer and more capable submarines. The combat system, sonar and torpedo of the new submarines are also a generation ahead of the pre-2000 level. It looks like China will certainly move to more of a nuclear fleet in the future as it seeks more power projection. But at the same time, it also is modernizing in all the other areas and increasing power projection. So, I don't really think the submarine modernization is really much more emphasized than other part of the fleet. Like? The Submarine Threat for wallpaper? Shar this image to The Submarine Threat for your friend.

chinese new year pictures

Download chinese new year pictures photo. Find chinese new year pictures images.

Wallpaper chinese new year pictures

hey guys,

so, there has been a bunch of photos coming out with Chinese new year. Frankly, a lot of them are old pictures from earlier part of this year that were held back, so I will just post a subset of them.
Not much new going on with the shipyards, since this is when Chinese work places normally shut down.
First, some pictures of the second Yuan currently docked at Shanghai.






More pictures with 054A in service at ESF.




And of course, the MCM ships





And of course, the second experiment ship, 892, is finally coming into service

Like? chinese new year pictures for wallpaper? Shar this image to chinese new year pictures for your friend.

Digital Blahpsamy

Download Digital Blahpsamy photo. Find Digital Blahpsamy images.

Wallpaper Digital Blahpsamy

Click On Images To Enlarge

Like? Digital Blahpsamy for wallpaper? Shar this image to Digital Blahpsamy for your friend.

Modified Yuan emerges

Download Modified Yuan emerges photo. Find Modified Yuan emerges images.

Wallpaper Modified Yuan emerges

so, the new 039 variant we saw a couple of weeks ago has now finally launched. I got some photos here. It's definitely a clearer view than what we've seen before.



I can't say too much except that it definitely looks wider than Song for sure. With the new hump, its hull looks kind of odd. And the sail also looks wider than previously. Generally, it looks like larger than previous Yuan or Song.

Also of note from this week, we finally got confirmation that Yuan is using an AIP engine of 100 kw in power. It's most likely equipped with 2 such AIP engine. Interestingly, Gotland submarines use 2 V4-275R stirling AIP units (each rated 75 kw). The larger Yuan obviously needs the more powerful AIP units.
The original article from Science & Technology Daily is as follows (if you can read Chinese).

国产AIP系统被官方媒体披露！
原载《科技日报》

“心”动力成就新梦想
中国船舶重工集团七一一研究所特种发动机应用出新果

福州红庙岭垃圾填埋场从今年起，每年都将会发一笔“意外”之财。当然，并不真的是天上掉馅饼，而是因为历时 一年有余，其垃圾填埋场封场覆盖及填埋气发电项目终于竣工投产，以后每年可向华东电网输送1200万千瓦时 的电能。
　　这个项目的核心———特种发动机技术的承建者，则是有30年特种发动机研究历史的———中国船舶重工集 团七一一研究所的下属单位上海齐耀动力技术有限公司。

　　特种发动机，是一种由外部供热使气体在不同温度下做周期性压缩和膨胀的闭式循环往复式发动机，七一一研究所研制的这种发动机，是一种具有国际水准的科研新成果，有分别带动20千瓦和100千瓦发电机的不同机型，既可以使用天然气、柴油、太阳能，又可使用其它固体燃料作动力进行发电，而排放的污染气体比目前市面上的其它发动机都要少，已达到欧洲排放标准，在民用和军用领域均可大规模应用。

　　目前，这一发动机已成功应用于我海军新型AIP潜艇上。由于它不依靠空气推进的动力装置，大幅降低了潜 艇噪声，能使潜艇在水下长期航行，增强了潜艇的隐蔽性，进而大大提升了我国海军作战实力。

　　此前这种船用发动机技术只有极少数国家掌控，如今完全实现了自主研发，被国内外誉为一颗强劲的“中国心 ”。

　　特种发动机的研究，凝注了中国船舶重工集团公司七一一研究所研发人员数十年的心血。1975年，中国舰船研究院第七一一研究所成立特种发动机研究室， 1996年6月，成立特种发动机工程研究中心。经过“八五”、“九五”的研究，相继突破12项关键技术。1 998年，他们研制成功了拥有完全自主知识产权的我国第一台特种发动机原理样机之后，他们又研制成功了工程样机，总体水平达到了国际先进水平，部分技术处于国际领先地位。

　　在特种发动机的研究过程中，七一一研究所以此为契机，培养了一大批技术骨干力量。从主持该项目之初，课题组只有10多人，而现在发展到100多人。涌现了上海市劳动模范、上海市青年科技英才等先进人物，也正是这支团队，多次被评为解放军总装备部“预研先进集体”，两次被授予“上海市劳动模范集体”称号 。

　　为了更好地推动特种发动机的应用，七一一所的特种发动机工程研究中心整体转制成立上海齐耀动力技术有限公司，并建成了位于上海浦东张江高科技园区研究和试验基地。而前不久完工的福州红庙岭垃圾填埋场封场覆盖及填埋气发电项目，使这一技术在民用领域方面的应用更加成熟。

It talks about 711 institute developing this new special type of engine. This is already used on China's new AIP submarine. They developed 20 kw and 100 kw variants. They developed a prototype of this engine as early as 1998. Like? Modified Yuan emerges for wallpaper? Shar this image to Modified Yuan emerges for your friend.

Russian exports to China in deep decline

Download Russian exports to China in deep decline photo. Find Russian exports to China in deep decline images.

Wallpaper Russian exports to China in deep decline

So, Nezavisimaya Gazeta has apparently come out with an article today saying that Russian exports to China is nearing collapse unless more advanced weaponry are offered. By going through the following articles,
http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/20212
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/01/29/afx4585077wallpaperswallpapers.html
and a bloomberg news article
Which are not the original, but apparently took important parts of the original, the problem reside in Russia not offering China hardware such as su-33, fast attack nuclear submarine, multiple launch system, Ka-50 and license to build several weapons under license.

I think we already know that su-33 have been ordered and a couple of them probably have been delivered to China already. Fast attack nuclear submarines are not really allowed to be exported and I don't think China would be interested in loaning Akula with the more advanced 095 SSN project ongoing. As for Ka-50, kamov mentionned a while back to Kanwa that China was not interested it, that's why it cooperated with the Europeans on the WZ-10 project. And as for building weapons under license, I think China is already getting all they want in terms of su-27 and Mi-171 (one of which got assembled in China contrary to Richard Fisher's Russian sources). I'm not denying that there are weapons that Russians are denying China. Tu-160 is one good example of such. However, it seems that China has access to pretty much everything it needs. And currently, the problem is that the IL-76 issue is not resolved. Russia obviously believes that it can get away with this due to the European arms embargo, but China has so far stood firm on the issue. And when this stalemate does end, China will still have a shopping list of Russian hardware that it will purchase. After all, Russian systems are still relatively cheap and more mature than their Chinese counterparts. China does have a philosophy of going for the good-enough, ready made and not necessarily state of the art systems. Anyhow, it would be interesting to see how this plays out. Like? Russian exports to China in deep decline for wallpaper? Shar this image to Russian exports to China in deep decline for your friend.

Responding to some recent PLA articles

Download Responding to some recent PLA articles photo. Find Responding to some recent PLA articles images.

Wallpaper Responding to some recent PLA articles

I haven't posted much lately due to the fact that there really hasn't been that many ground breaking news coming out. There has been a lot of articles coming out on engine development in the past year. It seems that WS-9 achieved production certification. I think that they probably made some improvement in terms of thrust vs Spey, because it makes no sense why else they had to go through this 3 year certification process for WS-9 after the original design certification. Even now, the MTBO of WS-9 is probably still less than that of Spey. The other good news is that production of Spey and Kunlun were finished ahead of schedule. WS-10A has also apparently finished the scheduled production for 2007. Also, there was a huge ramp up in production in October and they can now finally really mass produce this engine. In a related note, the new LCAC could be using Chinese gas turbine QC-70 in the future. These are all news released on avic1 website. The other interesting thing is that I saw on two separate sources that a new corvette in the Saar V class is coming out (so I guess 1000 to 1500 ton displacement). Now, the construction for this class will probably not begin until 022 finishes (which should happen pretty soon). We've all been expecting this class to fill the void between 022 and 054 series. It's just a matter of seeing this class now.

Now, onto the matter of looking over some of the recent articles. Richard Fisher finally posted a newly researched on strategycenter after a long break. First, regarding the AL-31FN, what he wrote seems to agree with what we have observed from Chinese sources, which suggests that all the FN supplied to J-10 are still the previous variant. The TVC version of FM1 has yet to be supplied. Although, there is no question this engine is being tested out by CAC for possibly upgraded version of J-10. It's also interesting that the Russians have finally figured out that China's reliance on their engine is likely to be finished soon. The 5th generation of Chinese fighters will certainly depend on WS-15 rather than FM3 or upgraded WS-10. He also mentionned 5th generation engine in China and Russia. I certain expect the Chinese one to fly by 2012, but I don't think the Russian one will fly by 2010. After all, the first flight date for PAK-FA seemed to have been pushed back multiple times and I don't expect that to change. The news on JF-17 and L-15 are kind of interesting. As I posted before on SDF, they are confirming that twin-seat and attack version of JF-17s are coming out. The order for L-15's engine is also a lot less than expected. Again, the real reason is that PLAAF simply hasn't liked this trainer enough to put in orders yet. If they can keep JF-17's cost down, it can certainly take some of the roles originally envisioned for L-15. Of course, JL-9's fact induction into PLAAF has also helped. As for EC-175, I don't think it's a secret that PLAN wants this as soon as possible. As for Mi-171, I totally disagree with Richard's Russian source. We've already seen a Mi-171 assembled in China and this has been verified by Kanwa's Russian sources + Chinese bbs sources. I think Richard is making Russians sound like they are being nice by giving more technology to China. I find it hard to believe that anyone can still believe this after Russian hardball with the Indians and China (over IL-76). The reality is that China is quickly loosing interest in Russian products. Russians are given a lot more credit in PLA modernization than they really deserve. These advanced weaponry they sold to China aren't that advanced at all. I read some speculations recently that China might be purchasing more 956s because the Russians owe China a lot of money. It's shocking that they would still want to purchase this outdated ship. It makes absolutely zero sense to me. Either way, no new major purchase will happen until the IL-76 situation is resolved.

I also read some articles recently from Yomiuri Shimbun on PLAN and their modernization and how it threatens Taiwan. You can find them in these links.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20080125TDY05306.htm
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20080125TDY05305.htm
There is also another one on the same site stating that Japan is improving its cruise missile defense against the increased Chinese threat. I can't dispute against that. In the interview with Taiwan's vice defense minister, Ko Chen-heng, he seemed to still believe that Taiwan has military advantage over China. I'm really trying to figure out what it is. If Taiwan really believes that it has advantage over China in military or that it's newly develop HF-2E will cause that much problems for China (and can counter the Chinese missile threat), it needs a serious reality check. That's not to say China has enough advantage to overcome the American intervention or the vast numerical advantage Taiwan would have after PLA landings. And it's hard to say how many years will pass before the cross-strait imbalance will reach that point. And Taiwan certainly has a lot more to be concerned about than aircraft carrier. Anyone can see that a PLAN carrier's main purpose is not for Taiwan.

And finally, PKF posted another article on UPI. This one compares the militaries of China, Singapore and Taiwan. The interesting part is that he basically said Singapore had more striking power than China. I could say more, but I think I will just let PKF's illusion continue. Like? Responding to some recent PLA articles for wallpaper? Shar this image to Responding to some recent PLA articles for your friend.

More updates + rumours on Varyag

Download More updates + rumours on Varyag photo. Find More updates + rumours on Varyag images.

Wallpaper More updates + rumours on Varyag

To follow up on the SRAAM + Yuan from the last post, we've received some updates since the last post. For the new SRAAM, we received news that the 607 institute (China Air-to-Air Missile Research Academy) has given a second level award to a project that involves the testing validation another project. It talks about lifting China from third to fourth generation, decreasing the gap with leading countries and the IIR requirement reached a world leading position. From all indication, I think this is describing the new SRAAM that is about to enter service soon. We've seen a photo that called this missile PL-10 (looking kind of like ASRAAM and A-darter) that is supposed to be in series production by 2010 at the latest. Although much of it is believable, it seems to contract the previous picture and report that this SRAAM is supposed to look more like Iris-t. Anyhow, I think it's something we will see more of later on this year. I'm also waiting for the new Chinese Meteor.

Yuan production has also seemed to have increased a lot recently. Outside of the original Yuan, we've seen a second Yuan that is supposed to be in the midst of sea tests (although all photos have it docked). You can see from all the MCM ships that it is in Shanghai. Many of the latest picture of the second Yuan can be found here. Someone did a nice comparison of the differences between the lead Yuan boat and the second one. This is a good picture of it:

We've also seen a new variant of 039 in Wuhan + an additional Yuan hull. So, we can say they have at least 3 Yuans and 1 Yuan modified at least reaching the launch status. Aside from this, we've probably seen anywhere from 12 to 16 Songs (314 to 329). So, the 039 series is definitely pulling quite the mileage for PLAN. With all the bad news surrounding the klub missile, I just can't see China ever purchasing any submarine or major surface ship or AShM or torpedoes from the Russians. As PLAN continues to modernize its underwater fleet, it will have to rely on the continuous advancement of its indigenous designs, heavy torpedoes + SLCM.

The other thing that has been bothering me lately is this report that Varyag is getting renamed and is joining PLAN. If anyone has seen the pictures of Varyag lately, it is clearly not ready to join service. What's more important to follow is the naval flanker situation. Contrary to most people's beliefs, China is not going to buy anymore su-33s from the Russians. I find it almost laughable to people are comparing super hornet to the Russian su-33s and saying China has no chance in these encounters. PLAN has different requirements than RuN, so it really makes no sense that they would want su-33s from the Russians for any reason other than studying. It's not entirely clear what the Chinese naval flankers will look like, but a careful study can yield some reasonable deductions. Please note that these are my sentiments at the moment. As we've seen with PLA, new evidences bring changes to one's mindset. So, please do not hold me guilty or something like that if this doesn't turn out to be true.

We've read an official news about a new plane in SAC starting the final assembly starting from late August. At the time, it was speculated to either be J-11BS (the striker plane) or the naval flanker. According to a big shrimp, the naval flanker is in final assembly right now and will be given the designation J-15. Now, it's also believed that this plane is required to be superior to super hornet in almost every area. If it makes the first flight in 2008, take 2 or 3 years to test in CFTE and then 3 to 5 years to practice on a carrier to reach some basic level of operation. The plane will then be ready by about 2015. So, I guess they are looking at building and achieving IOC on the first indigenous carrier by that time. The 5th generation fighter will almost be ready by then, so it makes sense that this plane is given this kind of requirement. I think the reason they chose flankers ahead of J-10 was due to its better multi-role capability and range/payload. I would imagine that it can also service PLANAF as a EW plane and buddy-to-buddy tanker like the super hornet. These are all concepts that have been tried or talked about on JH-7A. By 2015, flankers would have the same status in PLAN as JH-7A does right now, so naval flanker will be the jack of all trade by that time. Despite the cheaper cost + superior flight performance of J-10, it certainly does not have the ability to serve in these roles. This would also reduce the types of aircrafts that would be operated on the indigenous carrier, so it would help with logistics. From what I read with big shrimps on Chinese bbs, we can probably expect a conventionally powered CATOBAR carrier of around Kuznetsov size that carries 30-40 flankers of different variants, 3 Y-7 AEW and a bunch of their future naval helicopters (either Z-15 or the new 10 tonne helicopter)

Also, the naval flankers might not last that long with PLANAF. The 5th generation fighter will most likely have naval variants, so it won't be too long before that fighter will start equipping PLAN instead. I guess you will have the 5th/4th generation mix like USN has with F-35 and super hornets. Like? More updates + rumours on Varyag for wallpaper? Shar this image to More updates + rumours on Varyag for your friend.

More rebuttal toward Andrei Pinkov

Download More rebuttal toward Andrei Pinkov photo. Find More rebuttal toward Andrei Pinkov images.

Wallpaper More rebuttal toward Andrei Pinkov

Pinkov has recently became a writer for UPI on the issues of Chinese military. I must say that his Kanwa magazine credentials are carrying him pretty far. It's unimaginable how he is allowed to continually write flawed articles for a fairly legitimate news site. As I have seen with his latest article. Pinkov's knowledge of PLA doesn't seem to be increasing. If you haven't read it yet, it goes like:

Should a conflict break out across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese forces would face a grave shortage of ammunition after just seven days of fighting. Even though China has a much greater stockpile of ammunition than Taiwan, it would also encounter similar problems in a sustained conflict.

The PLA Air Force fleet of third generation fighters comprises 281 Su-30s, Su-27 SKs, J-11A/Bs and 64 J-10As, whereas its bomber fleet includes approximately 48 JH-7As and 117 H-6s. In full-scale warfare across the Taiwan Strait, suppose there were a loss of 20-30 combat aircraft each day, the current fleet of 344 third generation fighters in effective service in the PLAAF could sustain combat operations for only 11-17 days.

Unlike the United States and Russia, China does not yet have the capability to independently manufacture third generation fighters. For instance, in order to produce J-11B fighters, China has to rely on imports from Russia for critical subsystems including engines and infra-red search and track systems.

Furthermore, the manufacturer of J-11 serial fighters, the Shenyang Aircraft Company, has had a production capacity limited to roughly 17 aircraft each year. As for the J-10, it is widely known that production of this fighter aircraft relies heavily on the outside world, as the J-10's AL-31FN engines are imported from Russia, and other large parts are forged following the designs of a certain Western country.

As a consequence, if a conflict broke out and a military embargo was imposed, the PLA Air Force would immediately face difficulties with its insufficient number of third generation fighters.

Taiwan's depleted ammunition could be immediately resupplied from U.S stocks, because most of the Taiwanese ammunition is the same as that used by U.S. and Japanese forces. However, such Chinese equipment imported from Russia as the Su-30 MKK multi-role fighters, Kilo 636M submarines and S-300 PMU-2 surface-to-air missiles are not in service in Russia. Even the quantity of RVV-AE air-to-air missiles in service is quite limited in the Russian Air Force.

In terms of the production of naval battleships, almost all of China's large-tonnage and new surface combatants rely on Russian and Ukrainian technologies, particularly the power plant systems from Ukraine.

Similar to the situation of the combat platforms, the replenishment of ammunition faces the same problems. Indeed, the PLA's capability to resupply its ammunition, is much greater than that of Taiwan. However, under highly intense assault operations, the attrition of ammunition would also be much greater than that of the defending side.

Another problem China would face is that the PLA must rely on foreign imports for its high-performance ammunition, and a substantial portion of the critical components of China's indigenous high-performance ammunition also has to be purchased from other countries. Moreover, as the combat platforms are mostly not standardized, once these platforms are depleted during combat operations and become quantitatively insufficient, the ammunition intended specifically for them won't be of much use. For instance, except for the J-11Bs, all the other Su serial fighters cannot carry China-made PL-12 AAMs, while the output of J-11Bs is very limited so far.

On the other hand, the J-10A cannot be fitted with Russian-made AAMs and air-to-ground weapons. The PLA Air Force has imported at least 1,000 units of RVV-AE (R77) AAMs, which means each of the 330 third generation fighters of the Taiwanese Air Force would face attack from three R77 missiles on average.

During the Ethiopia-Eritrea air conflict from 1999 to 2000, the Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters of the two countries fired the same R-27 AAMs in large numbers, but none of them hit their targets! In the air battles, the loss of MiG-29s was mainly because they were struck by the short-range R-73 AAMs.

In 1999, when the U.S. Air Force's F-14D fighters chased the Iraqi MiG-25s that entered the no-fly zone, the U.S. fighters fired a total of eight AIM-54C AAMs, but none of them hit their targets either. During another U.S.-Iraq air confrontation in January 1991, F-15 fighters fired a total of seven Sparrow semi-active radar guided air-to-air missiles, and once again, none of them hit their targets.

China has imported more than 1,000 H-29T ASMs and H-59T ASMs. Are these too many? Not at all. In modern air battles, the basic concept is to involve a few 10,000 air-to-ground weapons, and the effect could still be quite limited. In the case of Taiwan, mountains cover a large portion of the landscape. Moreover, in time of conflict, the problems of cover-up and camouflage have to be taken into consideration.

During the Kosovo War, large-scale air raids lasted 78 days, a total of more than 23,000 rounds of various types of ammunition were dropped, but only 3 percent of them hit the designated tank targets, according to the former Yugoslavia regime after the war.

As for the PLA Navy, it has only 14 real battleships with the capability to engage in modern maritime combat operations. Its other battleships are all useless metal scrap. These 14 ships include two 051Cs, one 051B, two 052Bs, two 052Cs, three 054As, and four 956E/EMs. During a conflict, these 14 battleships would inevitably become the prime targets of Taiwan's air and naval firepower.

A possible outcome could be as follows: in a lasting war of attrition when the above third generation combat platforms and ammunition supplies become a serious problem, the older equipment of the Chinese military, including J-8Fs, J-7Gs and the obsolete vessels of the PLA Navy would be put to use; hence a 1970s war would be played out on a 21st century battlefield.

This proves the practicality of the Chinese military's concept of "fighting a quick battle." Obviously the Chinese military is well aware of the hard reality that the current international political dynamics, China's own limited strategic oil reserves and its limited supply of advanced ammunition will not allow it to engage in a prolonged war across the Taiwan Strait.

His biggest problem is turning this into a numbers game. It's about how many planes I have and how many planes you have. And how long I can afford to loose my planes and how long you can afford to loose yours. Now as we know, there is a lot more to war than just how many guns I have vs how many guns you have. Having said that, let's just look through some of his point.

The first thing that jumps out to me is his underestimation of these so called older plans like J-8F and J-7G. J-8F is believed to be more capable than su-27s in PLA with it's more advanced radar, ability to fire multiple PL-12s and good supersonic performance. It may not be the most agile platform out there, but the current upgrades makes it a relatively effective BVR platform. In a scenario like Taiwan, even the J-7Gs can have its uses due to the small cross-strait air space.

The second thing jumping out is underestimating China's 4th generation air force. While the flanker force in PLAAF is well known, the number of J-10s and JH-7As in service are far more that what he stated. We've seen 6 regiments of JH-7/A and probably 5 regiments of J-10. And there is probably even more of each type than what we've seen. The statement that J-10 depends on the foreign world is purely ignorance. Despite what Pinkov says, WS-10A has been equipping J-10 and has fully reached satisfactory performance for PLAAF. As for the "other large parts are forged following the designs of a certain Western country", let's just say that statement is neither correct nor problematic if it is correct. J-11B certainly does not rely on the import of Russian items anymore. A while back, the Russians cut supplies to all the subsystems of J-11B, but this project has just continued by using all domestic components. In case of emergency, CAC's production line is said to have the capability to reach a rate of 400 J-10s per year. Right now, China has neither the money or the need to reach that level of production. Wartime will however be different. I'm guessing it's a similar scenario with SAC. The real critical issue to examine is whether China will have enough skilled pilots left in a sustained war.

Pinkov also brought up the interesting point of China only having imported 1000 R-77s and 1000 H-29/59. While this is true, China does not rely on su-30s for it's A2A and A2G missions. I would say that having 4 R-77 + about 10+ R-27s + large numbers of R-73s for each of the imported flankers is enough. The chance of an aircraft having the opportunity to fire off 15 to 20 times and still survive is not too great. The far more important part is China's production rate for PL-12, PL-8B, the new SRAAM, KD-88, YJ-91 and YJ-83K. There is no indication at the moment that China would not have enough of these type of ammunitions. And with the induction of LS-500J, LS-6, FT series PGMs, China certainly has the ability to produce a lot of cheap smart bombs. The LACMs and SRBMs will be used for more important targets. I'm not saying that China has enough ground attack weapons for the Taiwan scenario, but that it's certainly not as bleak as some people would say. As for S-300PMU2, China certainly did not purchase enough of its missile, but China also certainly has plenty of HQ-9 missiles. And the performance of HQ-9 has certainly pleased PLA enough for wide deployment.

And his analysis of the naval situation is more puzzling. I just don't understand why it matters that some of the subsystems on the modern PLAN ships are licensed production of Russian/Ukrainian systems, when there is no way China can possibly produce those large ships during the war or the time leading up to the war. The only thing that Chinese shipyards can build during these periods are the 022s. Those certainly don't need to worry about not getting the necessary imports from the Russians. His entire arguments about China not having enough surface fleet is true, but that's not a problem against Taiwanese. It will be a problem vs JMSDF and USN, but ROCN might not even survive long enough against PLAN missile strikes to form any kind of useful retaliation. His entire dismissal of 022s and the sub force really ignores the reality of the war scenario.

Either way, Pinkov continues to write articles that appeal to the anti-Chinese crowd while failing to really examine PLA doctrines and deployment. It's certainly easier to convince readers that don't follow PLA that much. He conveniently ignores certain truth to try to enhance his points. However, a long-time PLA watcher will probably see the folly of his arguments. Like? More rebuttal toward Andrei Pinkov for wallpaper? Shar this image to More rebuttal toward Andrei Pinkov for your friend.

New submarine?

Download New submarine? photo. Find New submarine? images.

Wallpaper New submarine?

I really thought about waiting a bit and collect a few pictures before posting again until I saw this. And then I saw this tonight and I was quite shocked. Apparently, this is from the Wuhan shipyard. We were seeing pictures of a 039A Yuan class sub under construction in Wuhan for a while. (so we thought) And now, we are seeing two subs (one that is already in the water and the other that will be launched soon) in this photo and the one that is not in the water looks different from 039A to my untrained eyes. Again, if this is from Wuhan shipyard, then it could represent the evolution of the Song series to the next variant (039B?). Anyhow, I will stop embarrassing myself with what little I know about submarines here. Enjoy the picture.

And also, we saw what appears to be a new SRAAM on a magazine that is carried under the wings of a J-11B. Again, I will let the picture do the talking. You might want to right click on this picture and select view image (or something like that) to get a closer look at the missile.


Due to the feedback that the submarine picture is not visible, I'm posting another copy here
Like? New submarine? for wallpaper? Shar this image to New submarine? for your friend.

New Chinese LCAC

Download New Chinese LCAC photo. Find New Chinese LCAC images.

Wallpaper New Chinese LCAC

This is probably the best photos I've seen coming out for a while. We are seeing the completion of the first Chinese LCAC. Using my measurement on one of the photos, it looks to be around 27 m in length, 13.5 to 16 m in beam and 3.5 m in height. Now, that's incredibly similar to the dimension of the USN LCAC. Which makes me think that it would also have similar displacement and payload to USN LCAC. Which means, it should be able to carry ZTZ-99 and ZTZ-96. We finally see what's going to be used in Type 071 LPD. An interesting part for me would be how many of these fit in Type 071. If we go by LPD-17 with LCAC, then we are looking at probably 2. The other interesting part is that this is much smaller than Zubr class hovercraft which China apparently bought (but we have never seen). Now, it looks like China just bought the engines of Zubr and put them on this Chinese LCAC. According to Kanwa, China bought UGT-6000 from Zorya. I don't know whether this is being used or a domestic power plant is being used for this LCAC.

Here are some of the pictures:






There are more such photos at SDF's Type 071 LPD thread.

There are also some other photos coming out. They are nothing new, but good shots of 805 and 530.





Like? New Chinese LCAC for wallpaper? Shar this image to New Chinese LCAC for your friend.

PLAAF - 2007

Download PLAAF - 2007 photo. Find PLAAF - 2007 images.

Wallpaper PLAAF - 2007

Having reviewed the progress of PLAN in the past year, I thought I would get into the progress of PLAAF now. As mentioned in the previous blogs, the air force has not seen the level of modernization witnessed in navy in the past 5 years. However, that does not mean plaaf has not made amazing improvement in the recent years. If we look back at the past few years, 2002-3 were the years that China finally received fighters capable of launching actively guided MRAAM and precision guided missiles with mkk and upgraded J-11. 2004 was the year that J-10 stormed onto the scene and proven itself as the most advanced fighter in service with PLAAF. 2005 was the year that China finally developed its own portfolio of different surveillance aircrafts with KJ-2000, Y-8J and the high new programs. 2006 was the year that China finally joined the world's elite club after displaying J-10 with its indigenous engine (WS-10A), indigenous avionics and indigenous missiles (PL-12 + PL-8B). It also marked the first time that China displayed its homegrown arsenal of precision guided missiles. When we look back at 2007, we see a year where PLAAF reached a new level of transparency when it finally really unveiled J-10, J-11B, JH-7A, engine progress, strike weapons and strategic platforms.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the past year is the unveiling of different PGMs and other ground attack weapons. After a really good display at Peace Mission 2007, JH-7A has finally shown its worth in PLA. And the main reason for its success are the new strike weapons and JH-7A's ability to use them. We have seen the deployment of a stand-off ground attack weapon in KD-88. In terms of capabilities, it's roughly comparable to SLAM-ER. We have seen the deployment of high speed anti-radiation missile in YJ-91. Although it's based on KH-31, it has improved indigenous seekers and possibly propellent. When it comes to air launched AShM, YJ-83K have become a regular fixture on JH-7As. We have also seen satellite guided bombs in LS-6, FT-1, FT-3. Although they are not still widely deployed (due to the infancy of Beidou), they seem to be inexpensive and relatively accurate like Western satellite guided bombs. We have also seen widespread deployment of laser guided bombs like LS-500J and LS-250J. Along with Russian strike weapons like KH-29, KH-59 and PGMs, China finally has true modern multi-role capability. With the full unveiling of JH-7A, we see a platform that is capable of striking targets at long range away with high precision. JH-7A has shown enough versatility to become the super hornets of PLA. It is asked to do many missions from ground strike, ground support, ASuW, SEAD and even EW. That is probably why we have already seen 6 regiments of JH-7/A series in service and probably will see 2 or 3 more. We have also seen the unveiling of H-6K bomber with new long range LACMs. Many people have questioned the usefulness of a 40s era bomber in 21st century, but we have seen enough improvement in the airframe, engine, weapons and avionics to indicate a fairly effective bomb truck.

We have also seen the continual upgrade of fighter force with continual deployment of J-10, introduction of J-11B and conversion programs of J-8II to J-8F standard. The results of J-10 against flankers in numerous exercises were finally published in official papers this year. We have seen more information on J-10 coming out like some radar specs, informal sources on its flight performance and it's switch to using more WS-10A engine. More importantly, we've been hearing about a major upgrade to J-10 coming out next year. We have also been hearing about continual improvement in the WS-10 series engine that was design to equip it. J-11B also made a dramatic appearance into the public eye right after the official declassification of J-10. I guess SAC was trying to steal some thunder from CAC. More importantly, it seems that the next generation PLAAF fighter must be making some progress for these declassification to happen. And with the news of more J-8II being converted to J-8F through Kunlun-2 engine upgrades and other upgrades, we can expect J-8F to be an important part of PLAAF plan for a while. JF-17 development is finally close to finished. Although it is unlikely to join the hi/lo combination of J-10 and J-11 for the future, it seems to have a future in PLAAF as a ground attacker to replace Q-5 or maybe as a two-seated trainer.

The interesting part about trainer is that Chinese trainer development seemed to have hit a wall. Su-27UBK and J-10S certainly do their job to train new pilots for the respective single seaters and serve other purpose in combat. However, the future pilots obviously cannot do all of their advanced training on these planes(due to many reasons). Let's take a look at the trainer developments. In the primary training category, Hongdu has failed to develop such a trainer and will now have to do licensed production of Yak-152K. In the intermediate training category, K-8 has established itself as a success both domestically and in the export market. In the LIFT category, GAIC was able to develop a relatively modern trainer (JL-9) very quickly based on existing technologies. Although it is still using turbojet engine and is based on JJ-7, it's cost + quick delivery have won a lot of orders from PLAAF. However, the much hyped L-15 project is apparently turning out to be a failure in PLAAF. It has yet to attract any kind of orders from the air force as a trainer or an attacker. This development has come as a huge shock for me. Hongdu in the recent years seemed to have been abysmal at turning out quality products for PLAAF. Their reliance on Yakolev has angered decision makers in PLA. It would be interesting to see if PLAAF has any change of heart in the coming year.

Military transport is another area that has been a disappointment for PLAAF. The much talked about IL-76 deal has pretty much fell to the gutters. The Russians aren't willing to build the transports at the current cost, but the Chinese aren't willing to renegotiate. It's kind of interesting that PLAAF has taken such a strong stance, because they really need this plane. They need it not only for air transport, but also as the platform for KJ-2000 and ABL development. It's true that this is a really bad contract for the Russians. However, China has signed numerous rip off contracts with the Russians like the 2nd batch of Sovs, 2nd batch of mkks, the 8 kilo sub package. Despite the fact that China no longer needed those deals after they were signed (and firing accidents), they still continued to take them in. It's good to know that they are finally developing a C-17 class transports, but that might not be ready until at least 2015. The question is what will China do until that time? Where is it going to find the necessary IL-76 platforms to convert to KJ-2000s? We know that they converted another 4 KJ-2000s this year. It's still unknown at this time whether this was taken from their fleet of 20 IL-76s or frames they got off the former Soviet republics. Either way, there is a reason that China is not holding any more talks with the Russians regarding military cooperations. Finally, there are the Y-8/9 developments. We've seen more KJ-200 coming out on the Y-8F600 platforms this year, which is a good sight after the tragic crash class year. We have also seen other high new platforms being converted from other Y-8 series transports. A very critical project that is being worked on is Y-9. As I mentionned in a previous blog, it is quite unbelievable that Y-9 has taken this long to develop. And then the header developer had the audacity to say that the delay is to make the plane perfect. When in fact the only reason PLAAF has made orders to this transport is because they desperately need something in this class for improved air transport + conversion to the high new series.

We have seen some mixed results in the helicopter area. In terms of attack helo, we were surprised to see the unveiling of the stealthy looking Z-10. It definitely looks like China has finally developed a world class attack helicopter. Even seeing the performance of Z-9G in Peace Mission 2007, I really have the feeling that attack helicopter is one area that China has made tremendous progress one. They've even managed to develop WZ-9 turboshaft for serial production rather than relying on P&W engine. Helicopter is one area that China has been able to cooperate with the West and learn from. We have already seen results in HC-120 and the future Z-15 project. However, the Z-15 project and the 10 tonne transport project are still years from completion. They've had to continue purchase from the Russians in Mi-17, Mi-26 and possibly Mi-38 to have a respectable transport fleet. They are still missing a respectable naval helicopter and have to rely on Ka-28. Z-9 series is simply too small to handle many of the tasks. Although Z-8F/K have finally reached the requirements of PLA, its production rate is still too low and cost is still too high to fully fulfill the needs of PLA. Until then, China has to rely on the Russians for naval and transport helicopters. Mi-17 offers a good cost/capability ratio, but Ka-28 is just not as good as SH-60 and NH-90.

Finally, the progress of engine has been really encouraging this past year. It appears that WS-10A has reached mass production and is equipping both J-10 and J-11B. WS-13 was in the long duration test this year and should be ready to start mass production next year. Although, it might be a while longer before it can become mature enough to equip all JF-17s. The upgraded version WS-10 with a T/W ratio of close to 9 achieved some level of milestone this past September and maybe ready in 2 or 3 years. According to some big shrimps, even WS-15's progress has been great and will probably be ready by 2015. Other engines like WS-500, WZ-9 and Kunlun series are all proceeding well and will soon be ready for their respective platforms. Engine has long been a sour point for Chinese defense industry, but the progress in the the last couple of years means that China will no longer be reliant on the Russians in a few years.

In general, the results of major projects have been mixed. In fact, I would say that the progress in trainers and transports is embarrassing and slow compared to what we've seen in the naval industry. We've seen China gaining in project management and production quality through work with aerospace giants like Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier. We've seen plenty of experience working with helicopter giants like Eurocopter and Sikorsky. However, these success have not transferred into the kind of success we have seen in the navy. Outside of CAC and SAC, the progress of other major aircraft companies have been disappointing. Even SAC has suffered a lot of delays in J-11B. A project that was suppose to be complete last year is only ready to join service now. We've seen a lot of gains in the strike weapons and continuous development of A2A missiles as well. The increased multi-role capabilities in PLAAF is definitely the bright spot this year.

So, what can we really expect next year? I've read just today about a new flanker variant that SAC has assembled and handed over to the flight test center (CFTE). I'm think this is either J-11BS or naval J-11 (some have used J-15 for its designation). So, this is definitely one fighter that I'd expect to hear more from over 2008. The other major project is the modified J-10. I've talked about it in my previous blog entries and it should also be doing flight tests next year. Although, the IOC for both fighters is probably still a couple of years away. JF-17 should be ready next year. I'm definitely expecting some firm export orders outside of the Pakistani ones. It would be interesting to see how successful this plane will be. It will also be interesting to see when twin-seater and ground attack versions will turn out. I've also heard about JH-7B coming out. Although for this one, I think the change will not be as radical as J-10 modified. Either way, I'm expecting plenty more news about JH-7 series next year for the EW variant, the continued deployment of current variant and the upgraded variant. Also, H-6K should be more of a fixture in the coming year. I also expect next year to be a banner year for Chinese AAMs. I think the long talked about next generation SRAAM and LRAAM will finally come out next year. The other big development that I'm looking for is the appearance of anti-air UCAV. As I have discussed in numerous places, SAC is apparently in advanced stage of development in this project. If it is developed, it will certainly represent a potent part of PLAAF's future. I'm sure that development of other UAVs and long ranged LACMs may also become more visible next year. I also expect continued appearance of Z-10 photos, but am not looking for any kind of miracles in the naval or transport category. The Y-9 project should finally have a liftoff next year, so we might see Y-9 based high new planes in the next few years. More Y-7 based surveillance planes like the carrier AEW and ASW platform might also make more appearnce. Everyone is focused on the news making programs like J-10, JF-17 and flanker series, but other programs are just as critical. I hope that other firms in AVIC1 and AVIC2 can become more competent and start finishing projects on time like CAC. After reviewing both PLAAF and PLAN, I think it's quite clear why I'm more excited about the navy at the moment. Like? PLAAF - 2007 for wallpaper? Shar this image to PLAAF - 2007 for your friend.

PLAN looking forward to 2008

Download PLAN looking forward to 2008 photo. Find PLAN looking forward to 2008 images.

Wallpaper PLAN looking forward to 2008

As mentionned in the last post, there are a lot of big things expected in 2008. With the 3rd shipyard (the military one) in JN's new Changxin location going online, we are looking at a new wave of building this year for destroyers and diesel subs. So, what am I expecting to see this year exactly?

The one that is probably most anticipated is the aircraft carrier. Most people suspect that we will see this in JiangNan shipyard. I don't have a problem with that, but will we actually see any meaningful pictures of this indigenous carrier this coming year? I do believe that many of the suppliers have already delivered the necessary components. I also believe that the ship will start construction in 2008, but we might not see anything useful for another 2 years. What about Varyag? We've been waiting for progress ever since the second half of 2005 when the ship was first painted in PLAN colour. Since then, we've seen some progress, but this year hasn't brought about that much changes. The conventional wisdom is that China bought Varyag for study and for training/preparing a future naval air wing. As time goes by, I have more and more doubts toward latter. I almost feel like Varyag is being displayed as a decoy of some sort. It is there to grab people's attention on this old ship, and away from works on China's first indigenous carrier. Obviously, I'm not expecting much progress in Varyag in 2008.

What about Destroyers? All signs are pointing to laying down of the successor to 052C in the beginning of next year. There is a lot of speculations on what would be size and armament on this ship. Many people have also speculated it to be the first class of massed produced Destroyers after Luda. While I can make guesses on how many missiles I will see on this 052D class, it probably isn't all that important. I guess we will definitely seem more VLS cells, more stealthy hull and possibly more advanced ASW parts. I think what we can safely guess is that 2 052Ds will be under work next year at JN. If we use 052C guideline, we might see 1 of the 052D be launched by the end of the year (if work starts at the beginning of the year). Questions that I have right now includes:
1. What kind of propulsion will be used? Still CODOG and COGAG? Still using licensed production of DA-80 or QC-185 or QC-260?
2. Will it have VLS for LACM/AShM? I'm thinking no, but it will be kind of interesting to see what kind of LACM and AShM it will carry and how many it can carry.
3. Will it carry shorter ranged AShM? Outside of Type 730 CIWS, will we see additional short range defense like HH-7?
4. How many VLS cells to expect and will they use common VLS? I'm guessing 64 or 72 and they probably will still be the same VLS as on 052C.
5. Upgraded sensors? What kind of changes will we see in the electronics? It will be interesting to see whether we just get the same sensors (upgraded inside) or completely new sensors. Whether or not some of the newly tested sensors on 891 will go on there.

What about frigates? This year, we have seen that all 4 initial 054A have been launched and commissioned. Sadly, we did not see a second batch of 054A. Although it's not as talked about, Huangpu shipyard also had a huge expansion this past year. While the dock was being used for 022s and the ocean tugging ship, 054A was put on the back burners. I guess that showed the important of these auxiliary ships, but also that PLAN wanted to test these new ships out before building the second batch. With the Huangpu expansion, we might see more 054 series coming out in the future in HP than HD. I would imagine that 054A will begin construction again at both HD and HP next year. We might see another 4 built next year. Although, it will be interesting to see what kind of modifications they make. Here are some of my questions:
1. What kind of propulsion? Still using CODAD and change to CODOG? We know that they've already approached the Russians on UGT-15000 and got a new generation of MTU diesel engines. Will this CODOG combination be on the next batch of 054A or a later batch? Certainly, they can continue to use the previous configuration. In fact, the kind of propulsion used could very well tell us the purpose of the ship. CODAD would indicate the AAW focused 054A. CODOG would indicate a more general focus later variant with more ASW capability built in.
2. Change in sensors? Are we going to continue to see the existing set of sensors or the new set that is currently undergoing tests on 891. Certainly, the new MFR on 891 would add cost + capability to 054A.
3. Upgrades in ASW? Are we going to see TAS finally on 054 series? It's surprising that they haven't put it on 054A yet.
4. Changes to VLS? the current configuration works pretty well and seems to be quite compact, but are we going to see possibly 48 in the future or maybe common VLS?

What about 022s? We've seen an astonishing number of 022s come out this year. I originally estimated that the 022s will stop production by 2011. However, it seems like 022 production will finish as early as next year if this production rate continues. The production almost confuses me, because PLAN has not shown this kind of urgency with any of its other recent platforms. It brings us to the next point. It looks like 022 is replacing 021/024/037 in the FAC/patrol kind of role. How many does PLAN really need. I mentionned 100 as the number a year ago and was laughed at by certain people. It now appears China might get even more than that if the production like this continues until 2010. Will 022 also be used in the sub-chaser kind of role like 037 is? We've already seen target ships based on 022. Will we see some kind of sub-chaser using catamaran hull? Or will we see ASW corvette like in Project 20380 by the Russians or Project 28 by the Indians? It seems like something like that is needed between 022 and 054A class. But will it come out now as we expect? That could certainly be used to replace Jiangwei/Jianghu class.

What about amphibious platform? Production of 072 and 073 class seem to have stopped now. According to Richard Fisher, there are going to be 150 of the 074A Yubai class. That will certainly be important in replacing the 079s. The most visible new class is obviously the 071 LPD. We've seen the first one joining service in SSF as 998. We've yet to see work on a second unit. We know that Dalian and HD shipyard both competed for the first 071 contract with HD winning. It kind of made sense, because HD generally builds ships faster. I believe we will see another unit of 071 being built next year and that will be done at Dalian. At the same time, HD will probably start construction of China's first LHD. We've talked about the challenges surrounding a Chinese LHD in the past, but there does seem to be enough political and military will at this point for a unit of this class. And I do hope that we will finally see the LCACs for 071 coming out next year.

What about submarines? We will most likely continue to see more 093s and 094s coming out. But we probably won't see the actual numbers until GE updates. Conventional subs is also likely to see more units this year, because JN shipyard will be available for it again. We were seeing 3 to 4 039s launched per year when it was finally in mass production. We have seen either the 2nd or the 3rd unit of 039A Yuan class under construction recently. It looks like PLAN has finally sorted out enough issues in Yuan to mass produce it. I'm guessing we will see 3-6 039As coming out a year for the next couple of years. And after that, we will see the successor to the 039 class. Probably something in the league of U-214/Scorpene. 039A to me is still something that is sort of an experimental class for technology to be used in that next generation Diesel sub.

As for the remaining part of the fleet, I'm looking for the following:
1. more MCM units in the 804 and 805 class
2. Yuanwang 2, 5 and 6 joining service -> 2, 3, 5 and 6 as the Yuanwang ships
3. More ELINT ship in the mode of 991
4. 1 more regiment of JH-7A to give 5 naval regiments of JH-7A
5. H-6K coming into service
6. Y-7 ASW variant (I guess it will do the same job as P-3C)
7. more units of different Y-8 variants
8. New supersonic ramjet missile in the class of Onyx/HF-3, except faster/better range (supposedly ready, we just haven't seen yet). Also other missiles getting finally unveiled like the LACM that was tested on 052C recently and more advanced submarine launched missiles. Like? PLAN looking forward to 2008 for wallpaper? Shar this image to PLAN looking forward to 2008 for your friend.

PLAN in 2007

Download PLAN in 2007 photo. Find PLAN in 2007 images.

Wallpaper PLAN in 2007

I haven't been able to post for a while due to my personal schedule. But as the Christmas approach us, I finally have a little bit of time to sit down and write something. The two major areas of Chinese military that I look at are the navy and the air force. I will try to start by looking at the year that was and the year that is to come.

PLAN seemed to have moved to a new level of transparency (although still not transparent by Western standard) over the past year. We have finally seen the unveiling previously hidden platforms in 093 and 094 nuclear submarines. China has also stopped refuting reports that it is looking to build a carrier. They all but admitted to Admiral Mullen a while back that they will be building carriers.. So, what can we say about the advancement of PLAN in the past year? If I had to make some summaries on PLAN, they would consist of the following:
1. Of the 4 major services, PLAN is the one that has benefited and improved the most from the recent PLA modernization.
2. The civilian shipbuilding has allowed PLAN to build a massive amount of new ships of relatively high capability at low cost.
3. We have seen more signs of force projection with the unveiling of 071 LPD, 888 replenishment ship, 804 mine hunter, 093, 094 and 054A frigates.
4. We have also seen the modernization in every area of PLAN with the mass production of 022 class, 801 and 805 class minesweepers, Yuanwang 2/5, 851 ELINT ship and new classes of medical ships.
5. We have seen deployment of new sensors/weapons and development/testing of even newer sensors/weapons.

Now, to look examine each of the 5 points:
First, while all 4 services have received mass amount of upgrade in the recent years, the improvement in navy have been the noticeable. If we look at 5 years ago, China's surface ships basically consisted of 2 Sovs, 1 051B, 2 052s and a bunch of obsolete Ludas, Jiangweis and Jianghus. Only 136 and 137 had SAMs that have more than point defense range. Outside of that only 051B and 052 had reliable point defense in the form of HH-7. Clearly, multiple concurrent engagements against sea-skimmers were pretty much non-existent. The ability to engage supersonic missiles was also extremely limited. In terms of ASuW, 136/137 were the pride and joy of PLAN with the much hyped sunburn missiles. In terms of ASW, China relied on subchasers, its more modern submarines in Song and Kilo. The PLANAF had some Y-8 MPAs, H-6s and a regiment of JH-7. As much as PLAAF have improved in the recent years, it was not in this kind of pathetic shape in 2002. It at least already received 74 su-27s, 38 su-30 and some J-8Hs. The order for 2 956EM and 8 636M were looked at as a saviour for PLAN. As we move forward 5 years, the change is almost startling over the past 5 years. They have added 2 052B, 2 052C, 2 051Cs, 2 054, 4 054As, 2 956EM, 1 071, 8 636M, almost 10 039/A, 5 093s, 3 094s, 50+ 022s, 4 more regiments of JH-7/A and a regiment of su-30MK2. We've even seen a total revamp of the auxiliary ships. With the assistance of KJ-200, one 022 has about the same striking power as any ship back in 2002 (yes, I believe YJ-83 is better than the overhyped Sunburn). The strike power in these newly acquired platforms exceed 2002 levels by many folds. They finally have true fleet defense ships in 052C and 051C. They finally have a multi-layer air defense system in place with HH-9/S-300 as the outer layer, HH-16/shtil as the medium layer and Type 730 + HH-7 for close in air defense. They have the capability to engage multiple supersonic missiles as a fleet. Even the seemingly ignored area of ASW have received massive improvement with the induction 093s, 039/As, Kilo and Ka-28s. MCM capability have improved from the complete WWII area fleet to 90s European level with the induction of 804, 805 and 801 class. The induction of 138/139 and the kilos barely met any excitement in PLAN world. In fact, we've heard more complaints about them with 3M80MBE and Club missiles than satisfaction. The only thing that seems to lack behind is the training of sailors for these new ships. 5 years ago, PLAN was struggling as a weakling to in the 4 services. It was barely enough to provide coastal defense. Forward to today, PLAN is just as strong as the other services. It finally is capable of launching real blue water operations without embarrassing itself.

Secondly, this improvement in PLAN has taken place while many other navies in the world have stayed put or regressed. Although ROKN and JMSDF have also improved a lot during this time, China's other main rival in ROCN really hasn't improved that much. With the exception of the 4 Kidd class destroyers and the possible induction of HF-3, ROCN has basically stayed the same. We hear more talk than action during this time. Russian navy has continued its decline with only a limited surface ship actually in operation. Other major navies around the world are all shrinking number like USN, RN and French navy. Everyday, we hear news of delays, budget overruns in various projects like LCS, LPD-17, Gorshkov, Astute class and Type 45. Whereas in PLAN has built the ships on time and seemingly on budget. Can any other navy get a frigate like 054A for 200 million US and Type 22 for less than 15 million US? This improvement can clearly be attributed to the improving domestic shipbuilding capabilities. With the 2nd largest shipbuilding industry in the world (and growing to number 1), the major domestic shipyards like JN, HD, HP and Dalian have certainly made good use of the improved technology, better project management and more skillful work force from the civilian side. Even a military only shipyard like Huludao have managed to crank out nuclear subs like there is no tomorrow. Coincidentally, South Korea and Japan have also used their competitive civilian shipbuilding industry to build highly advanced ships on time and budget.

Thirdly, the new ships we've seen in 2007 have strong elements of force projection. China launched 071, it's largest non-replenishment military ship, at the end of 2006. Many of us were anticipating HH-16 or HH-7 on 071, but that didn't happen. Having said that, 071 is indicating a change in PLAN's doctrine. While 072s are good enough for Taiwan strait, 071 will be important in any long distance amphibious operation. From the pictures, GE photos, it looks like 071 is in the 20,000 t range in terms of full displacement. Its almost as long as LPD-17 and can carry probably 3-4 Z-8F on the helipad + 2 Z-8F or 3 Helix in the hangar. For short range missions, having both the helipad and hangar can provide extra assault helos to support the amphibious operations. 071 also represents the first step toward building an helo carrier (which will probably start building soon). The first 071 has already joined SSF and we will probably see more of this class in the coming years. The second one should be refined from the first one. The other big ticket item from this year is the construction of the 4 054As at HP and HD shipyard. I have already chronicled 054A, so I don't think I will need to state its capabilities again. 054A definitely represents a change in PLAN frigate from corvette size to frigate size (although the Europeans have increased that). They definitely have the size/endurance to be escorts for a carrier group, which is something we can't say for Jiangweis. With the unveiling 093 and 094, these are also clearly power projection tools. The new 093s may not be the most advanced attack subs out there, but PLAN has finally received a sub that has a reliable reactor, good set of sensors and reached reasonable level in terms of speed/quietness. The photos from GE clearly shows that they are actively building more and more 093s. And with 095 supposedly under works already, 093s will provide Chinese sailors with more blue water operations until the more capable sub is ready. And finally, even the launching of 888 and 804 continues to indicate more willingness to move out of first chain. 888 is an evolution from the recent 886/887 replenishment ships. 804 represents the first MCM asset in PLAN that is intended to operate outside of the coastlines. It's equipped with modern imaging sonar and remote operated vehicles to hunt down and dispose mines. Although I did not mention in the points, the addition of more JH-7A regiments, possible inclusion of H-6K regiment and different new Y-8 surveillance ships all point to capabilities further away from the coastline. Of course, PLANAF will not provide true blue water capabilities until PLAN gets a carrier group.

Fourthly, the non-blue water elements in PLAN have also all received important upgrades in the past year. The most obvious one is the mass production of Type 22 FACs. PLAN is clearly in love with these new FACs. In terms of speed, survivability and firepower, they are clearly generations ahead of the FACs that they are replacing. And in any Taiwan scenario, they will be crucial in providing additional firepower. We've seen them already in large scale exercises. If I was to guess, they probably have anywhere in the neighborhood of 50 to 75 of these either commissioned or launched. We will be seeing 022s fully replacing 021/024/037s in the next few years. We've already seen target ships based on the catamaran hull of 022. We've even heard about more of the catamaran LCUs are produced from Richard Fisher. They will definitely be guarding China's coastline for the next 20 years. Outside of 804, we've basically seen at least 2 classes of new minesweeper coming out. The 805 class (also with 328, 438 and 840) seems larger and more capable. Presumably this class of minesweeper can also be oceangoing vessels. 801-803 and 811-814 seems to be the other class that is also an improvement over T-43 class, but is not as advanced. Either way, China is finally getting its first major MCM upgrade since those early days. We've seen China promoting more or more mines in the export market. It's good to see that they are also investing a lot more in the MCM field. We've also seen the new Yuanwang 2 and Yuanwang 5 getting launched this year. You can read about it's purpose on sinodefence. And finally, the elint and medical ships are also getting upgrades with the induction of the 991 SWATH ship, the upgrade of the existing 851 ELINT ship, the induction of 920 medical ship and conversion of another to a medical ship. We've seen a new ocean tugging ship just launched from HP shipyard(sort of caused delay of the construction of more 054A class). The importance is that China is clearly upgrading all parts of its fleets rather than just the eye-catching ones like nuclear subs and surface ships.

Finally, we've seen HH-16 + it's FCR, AK-176M + its FCR, new Sea Eagle radar, AK-630M, ROV, ship launched LACM, Yu-6, H/SQG-207 flank array sonar and JL-2 coming into service on the new platforms. AK-176, ROV and the LACM are certainly systems that we were not expecting to see this year. Especially LACM, we were really surprised to see that 052C's launchers were capable of launching LACM as well as advanced AShM. In the coming year, things that might get deployed are the new Sea Eagle radar and MFR on 891, ASROC and towed linear array radar that are supposed to be in development, gun/missile CIWS, a Chinese AGS and a supersonic AShM like Onyx. I will certainly be expecting some surprises in the coming years. The next post will talk about what kind of systems I'd expect to see next year. Like? PLAN in 2007 for wallpaper? Shar this image to PLAN in 2007 for your friend.

Taare Zammen Par Wallpapers

Download Taare Zammen Par Wallpapers photo. Find Taare Zammen Par Wallpapers images.

Wallpaper Taare Zammen Par Wallpapers

Like? Taare Zammen Par Wallpapers for wallpaper? Shar this image to Taare Zammen Par Wallpapers for your friend.