Lithium-ion Battery Surplus Could Arrive by 2015, Forcing Prices Lower

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The global automotive Li-ion battery market will grow to more than USD 9 billion by 2015 New and confirmed programs, especially in Asia, are being partly offset by volume reductions in Europe and America Five frontrunners are set to control 70% of the world market by 2015: AESC, LG Chem, Panasonic/Sanyo, A123 and SB LiMotive Major overcapacity and falling prices will lead to strong market consolidation Chinese competition is growing, while China could become the leading market for e-mobility by 2020 The worldwide market for Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles is extremely dynamic. In light of recently presented or annouced vehicle models with electric, hybrid or plug-in-hybrid drives (xEV), Roland Berger experts expect the global LiB market to reach more than USD 9 billion by 2015, despite scaled-back forecasts for previously announced models. This growth will, however, be accompanied by massive overcapacity. The resulting pricing pressures are already affecting orders for 2015. Market consolidation therefore looks certain. The five frontrunners – AESC, LG Chem, Panasonic/Sanyo, A123 and SB LiMotive – will control almost 70% of the market by 2015. These are the key findings of a new update to the international study by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants on the market for lithium-ion batteries in cars, light and heavy commercial vehicles as well as buses with hybrid and electric drive systems. The experts at Roland Berger estimate that the light vehicle segment (cars and light commercial vehicles) will account for more than 85% of the total market for Li-ion battery systems in 2015. By then, there will probably be in excess of 4 million vehicles with electric, hybrid or plug-in-hybrid drive systems (xEVs) coming off production lines each year. "We still expect the global market for Li-ion batteries to reach USD 9 billion by 2015," says the study's author, Thomas Wendt of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. "Although forecasts for many existing programs have been downgraded, there are new xEV models coming out in Asia, especially hybrids." Even if Japanese and Korean carmakers opt for alternative drive technologies, the majority of hybrid vehicles produced will be equipped with nickel-metal-hybrid batteries by 2015. Although nickel-metal-hybrid batteries will remain entrenched in certain segments through 2015, the Roland Berger experts reckon with continued penetration of the Li-ion technology. "We are starting to see some signs of Li-ion batteries being used in start-stop systems," notes Wolfgang Bernhart, Partner at Roland Berger and co-author of the study. "Start-stop will not make up a large share of the LiB market by 2015, but we can expect to see micro-hybrids vehicles with Li-ion batteries coming onto the market over the next couple of years." Market consolidation – five top players to dominate the market Over a hundred companies worldwide are currently active in the market for automotive Li-ion batteries. Yet production capacity in this market will probably be twice as big as demand in 2015. "Some of the battery producers have excessively grand expansion plans. The ramifications are already being felt and LiB suppliers have started to cut their forecasts," notes Thomas Wendt. "This is why we'll see considerable market consolidation going forward. Pricing pressures will certainly increase." For 2015, Roland Berger envisages OEMs facing prices in the EUR 180-200 /kWh range for high-energy packs on large orders. "This means the current margins of approx. 5 to 10% will also drop in the medium term," says Bernhart. In the course of this consolidation, five top players will share most of the battery market in 2015. The frontrunners are: AESC (20%), LG Chem (15%), Panasonic/Sanyo (13%), A123 (11%) und SB LiMotive (9%). "Some OEMs have lowered their market forecasts for electric and hybrid vehicles, and some new automakers have already failed. But we still expect strong growth in the e-mobility battery market going forward," adds Thomas Wendt. What is more, from 2016/2017 one or two other companies will join the ranks of the top players controlling 80-90% of the market. This development will be triggered by new vehicles coming onto the market and by the use of new material composites that promise higher energy densities at the same price. Problems are arising above all for the small suppliers, whose combined share of the global market will only amount to 2% in 2015. "The first companies are already facing insolvency," says Wolfgang Bernhart. "Consolidation in the industry is going to happen. Large companies like JCI, who are not in the limelight yet, will play a more important role. Smaller players, on the other hand, will disappear. We also expect that cell manufacturers will supply directly to the OEMs." Chinese manufactuers gaining ground There is also growing competition from China in the battery market. By 2015, Chinese manufactuers will control about 8% of the world market. And China itself could emerge as the biggest market for e-mobility by 2020. For international battery producers, this trend presents both an opportunity and a challenge: "Battery manufacturers must best-position themselves on the Chinese market, too, if they want to secure long-term success," says Wendt. Like? Lithium-ion Battery Surplus Could Arrive by 2015, Forcing Prices Lower for wallpaper? Shar this image to Lithium-ion Battery Surplus Could Arrive by 2015, Forcing Prices Lower for your friend.

EV Battery costs down 14% from one year ago and 30% since 2009

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Electric-vehicle lithium-ion battery-pack costs fell 14 percent during the past year and are down 30 percent from three years ago because of technological improvements and increased production capacity, Bloomberg News reports, citing a study from its sister entity Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

EV battery costs fell to $689 per kilowatt hour (kWh) during the first quarter, down from $800 per kWh a year earlier. Bloomberg New Energy Finance also estimates that the battery industry has the capacity to supply as many as new 400,000 battery-electric vehicles this year, and that number may jump to almost 700,000 by the end of next year. Global vehicle makers sold about 43,000 EVs last year.

Lithium-ion battery costs are important because they can account for 25 percent or more of an EV's total costs, and estimates have varied widely. Last month, green-technology firm Pike Research estimated that lithium-ion battery costs may fall by about a third to $523 per kWh by 2017, while the battery pack for the Nissan Leaf EV has been reported to cost as little as $375 per kWh. The U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium has said battery costs will have to fall to about $150 per kilowatt hour for EVs to be price-competitive with conventional vehicles.


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USABC awards $5.48M Li-ion PHEV battery technology development contract to Johnson Controls

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The United States Advanced Battery Consortium LLC (USABC), an organization whose members are Chrysler Group LLC, Ford Motor Company and General Motors, has awarded a $5.48-million lithium-ion battery technology development contract to Johnson Controls Inc.

USABC awarded the contract to continue Johnson Controls’ development of lithium-ion battery technology for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) applications to meet USABC goals for low-cost, long-life, high-power and high energy vehicle systems. The award, which completes work begun under previous contracts (NMC chemistry prismatic cell), is co-funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and includes a 50% cost-share by Johnson Controls.

The focus of this 24-month program is to further increase the volumetric energy density of a hard-cased prismatic cell technology developed in a preceding USABC-Johnson Controls program through a combination of innovative material and processing advances.

The improved energy density is aimed at reducing cost, volume and mass. All cells will be built either in Johnson Controls Battery Technology Center in Milwaukee or its Li-ion manufacturing facility in Holland, Mich.

The new contract is USABC’s third with Johnson Controls, previous research of which with USABC included competitively bid contracts for the development of battery cell, module and pack technology for PHEV applications and lithium-ion battery systems development for hybrid electric vehicles.

USABC is a subsidiary of the United States Council for Automotive Research LLC (USCAR). Enabled by a cooperative agreement with the US Department of Energy (DOE), USABC’s mission is to develop electrochemical energy storage technologies that support commercialization of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell vehicles. As such, USABC has developed mid- and long-term goals to guide its projects and measure its progress.

Founded in 1992, USCAR is the collaborative automotive technology company for Chrysler Group LLC, Ford Motor Company and General Motors.

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China BAK to supply additional 1,000 Li-ion battery packs to Chery for M1 EV

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China BAK Battery, Inc. announced a new contract to supply high-power Li-ion batteries to Chery Automobile.

Under the contract, China BAK will deliver 1,000 lithium-ion high-power battery units in 2012 to power Chery’s Ruilin M1 electric cars. The new contract is in addition to China BAK’s previously-announced contract with Chery, entered into in February 2012, to supply 100 high-power battery units to Chery, which are on schedule to be delivered by June 2012.

The Ruilin M1 is one of the five electric vehicle models that have been approved for government use since early this year.

China BAK will hold a joint press conference with Chery in mid-April in Tianjin. At the press conference, Chery and China BAK plan to announce a long-term cooperation program in the electric vehicles industry.

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