Varyag + China's blue water ambitions

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Over the past year, I have seen numerous articles about China's aircraft program coming out as Varyag is getting closer and closer to joining service. Many of those articles are fear mongering and riding this "China is taking over America" sentiment that many Americans are feeling through this economic downturn. So, it was interesting that I read an article completely on the other side this week from wired magazine. Aside from the title, it raises some good points to think about while missing out on other points.

I think that David Axe makes a good point in bringing up all of the navies surrounding PLAN that have carrier(s) or aviation capable flattops. At this point, PLAN is just at the start of its blue water naval strategy. Due to the increasing pressure on PLAN to defend Chinese interests around the world, PLAN is finally getting into the business of building a blue water fleet. Due to its lack of experience in naval aviation and lack of contacts/training with countries that have naval aviation tradition, PLAN will be starting from a very backward position. As stated in the Wired article and by most PLAN observers, Varyag will be a training carrier once it goes into service. One can see the amount of resources that China has placed in its carrier program by the amount of resources spent on Varyag, the carrier simulation facility in Wuhan, the different take-off/landing facilities around the country and the numerous indigenous naval aviation program under way. Just from the latest photos of Varyag alone, we can see several close-in weapon systems that have not appeared in any previous PLAN ships.
We can see the new RAM-like HQ-10 SAM installed in 3 different positions on Varyag

A host of new sensors + 052C MFRs on the oversized island.

The new HQ-10 SAM + 12 barrel ASW rocket launcher + new 10/11 30mm barrel CIWS + 18 barrel multi-purpose rocket launcher



And here is a list of possible ongoing naval aviation programs. First, we have the mysterious fix-winged naval AEW program, which is probably aimed for the first domestic carrier.


And then we have the domestic Z-8 AEW program that is now going through trials with PLAN naval aviation.


Which is mixed in with 9 imported Ka-31 AEW helicopters. It's hard to say how PLAN will use the two platforms at this point, but I would imagine seeing both on Varyag + first couple of domestic carriers. I do see PLAN going toward the USN model in the future and use strictly fix-winged AEW assets.



And finally, they also have the J-15 and JL-9H program going. Due to its range and payload, J-15 could be designed to perform more than just air defense duties of Su-33. Think of Super hornets and all of its different uses in USN.



So, I would say that there are many new weapon systems and technologies developed in China for its naval program. On top of all of the new hardware been developed, the process of training competent carrier operation crew is just as arduous. So far, the only major cooperation agreement they have been able to make is the one with the Brazilian navy. Therefore, China has a lot of stuff to learn over the next 20 years. Varyag will be a training carrier once it goes into service, but it will also be an operational carrier once the sailors accumulate some years of experience. The same will be the case for China's first domestic carriers.

When I look at the entire PLAN modernization, I really think that the carrier program has trailed most of the other programs. Over the past 5 years, one can already see an increasing need for a Chinese blue water fleet with its increasing energy security concerns from Africa/Middle East + its dependence on world commerce + the number of Chinese nationals working in African/Middle Eastern/Pacific Island countries. China currently gets a free ride from US Navy for energy security and safety of its merchant ships, but it really has no trust in USN. A good number of Chinese people in and outside of the military thinks that US is trying to hold China down. And when one looks at the extremely vocal China threat group in Washington, it's easy to see why they would get this view. So, I think that even though China already has a clear need for a carrier, this program has trailed the rest of PLAN modernization for numerous reasons. And I think that as China becomes even more dependent on world commerce in the coming years, the need for a blue water fleet will become more apparent (even if it will make many neighbours uncomfortable). On top of that, China sees East Asia and Southeast Asia as its backyard and wants to become the big dog here that keeps order. It cannot do so with a green water fleet. You are seeing more comments/actions from China in this direction, even though they will not say this openly.

One part I think David Axe was really wrong on was the assertion that Varyag will be defenseless. The PLAN naval modernization/expansion have been going on for the past 15 years. If anything, PLAN already has the necessary escorts for the first carrier and is in the process of building many more advanced escorts as shown in the photos below. And the recent Gulf of Aden missions provided PLAN with an opportunity to try these ships out for long periods in blue waters, so they will be ready by the time Varyag becomes operational.
The first three photos are the 3rd, 4th and 5th 052Cs currently under construction in JN shipyard



This next photo is the 6th 054A currently under construction in the HD shipyard

And here is the 6th 054A from HP shipyard that just got launched.


The other importantly part of China's increased blue water ambitions is the need for oversea "places" that PLAN can dock in the future for supplies. Here is a Jamestown article on the issue of logistical supply places that are emerging from the Gulf of Aden missions. Now, I do think that China will need a couple of oversea naval bases in the future to protect its commerce and such, but it is not at that point yet.

Most recently after the Osama killing, a lot of noises came out of Pakistan asking China to have a naval base in Gwadar. Here is an Asia Times article on the subject of Gwadar naval bases. You can see that China is punting on this issue right now, because it does not make sense for China to have a base there at the moment.

At the same time, I did find this other article regarding recent meeting between China and Burma to be far more interesting.

According to official sources in Naypyidaw, Chinese officials have repeatedly raised the issue of mobilizing its naval forces in Burmese territorial waters in recent months amid the superpower's increasing interests in the country, most notably the Sino-Burmese oil and gas pipelines, and the Chinese navy's activities in the Indian Ocean, particularly patrolling against Somali pirates.

Chinese officials are not suggesting a Chinese navy base in Burma, but having the permission to dock their warships at Burma's ports while they are patrolling the Indian Ocean and Somalia, said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity. The issue is still under discussion.

However, Burmese military sources have said they believe that China is more concerned about protecting the strategic port of Kyaukpyu, a multi-billion project that Beijing financed.

After the pipelines are finished in 2013, they are expected to have the capacity to transfer to Yunnan Province more than 80 percent of China's imported oil from the Middle East and Africa, as well as Chinese-purchased natural gas from Burma's Shwe Gas Field.

Shwe Field is currently Burma's largest gas reserve with an estimated 7.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. It was discovered in 2004 and is likely to be operational by 2013. The Burmese regime chose to sell the natural gas from Shwe Offshore Field to China over another energy-hungry neighbor, India, in 2007, a move that consolidated the junta's position as a valued ally of Beijing.

The pipeline project includes upgrading the airport on Ramree Island where Kyaukpyu is located. Residents of Ramree Island said that they have seen not only Chinese workers, but also Chinese military personnel in recent years on the island.

Chinese interests include the protection of oil tankers. Beijing has sent warships to Somali waters in the past two years, a maneuver that marked the superpower's the first ever naval mobilization outside the Pacific Ocean.

Returning from a counter-piracy operation in the Indian Ocean in August 2010, two warships, the Guangzhou and the Chaohu, docked at Thilawa Port, near Rangoon, for a five-day visit. Burmese and Chinese state media reported at the time.

From this article, you can see all of the Chinese energy and economic interest in this region and why China would want to have a blue water navy that can operate in this region. When one look at the narrow Strait of Malacca where much of China's energy and commerce shipping flows through, it becomes clear why China would also want to build an energy pipeline that would bypass that. In that region, China would not only be under the mercy of USN, but also under the mercy or threat of Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. That is quite a scary thought for the supposedly next super-power of the world. In the increasingly bitter confrontations between China and its neighbors over South China Sea, I think China will need to get back to building trusting relations with its southern neighbors while also continue to build an effective blue water navy.

So as Varyag is about to start sea trials, we see the shift of a nation from enclosed and poor to more prosperous and reliant on the world. The need for a blue water navy comes from China's need to protect its oversea interests + its people's desires for a strong nation. China will not become a blue water navy overnight, but would need years to develop competent carrier operations. It stills has a long way to go before it can be mentioned in the same breath to the Seventh Fleet. That's a scary thought for a nation that's more dependent than any other nations for safe and open sea lanes. As we observe the formation of China's blue water ambitions, I hope more people see if from this view point rather than the view point that China is about to take over the world. Like? Varyag + China's blue water ambitions for wallpaper? Shar this image to Varyag + China's blue water ambitions for your friend.

Wallpaper CARROS 1

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Fiat Linea 2012

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Desde seu lançamento, o Linea vem recebendo várias melhorias leves para se manter um ótimo produto, e isso vem lhe fazendo manter um número de vendas até estável, mesmo estando no agitado segmento dos sedãs médios. Como esta é uma categoria que valoriza muito a imagem e o status, o fato de não ser um best-seller como Toyota Corolla ou Honda Civic até lhe beneficia, porque evita que sua imagem seja banalizada com as aparições excessivas.

A linha 2012 passou por uma nova mudança de versões, em que a básica LX se adapta ao resto da gama e passa a se chamar Essence. Mas manteve um pacote de equipamentos interessante, com ar-condicionado, airbag duplo, trio elétrico, direção hidráulica, freios com ABS, rodas de liga leve aro 15” e faróis de neblina, entre outros. Sempre manual (R$ 56.700) ou automatizado Dualogic (R$ 59.700).

Quanto à lista de opcionais, ele ganhou dois pacotes. O Emotion 1 traz bancos em veludo, apoio de braço e saída de ar no banco traseiro, luzes de leitura especiais e lanternas fumê por 500 reais, enquanto o Emotion 2 é o mesmo mas com bancos de couro, por 2300 reais. Já a Absolute ganhou rodas de 17” com o mesmo 1.8 16v e.TorQ de até 132 cv e sempre automatizada (R$ 67.570), e a T-Jet de 152 cv continua inalterada e sempre manual (R$ 71.860).

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DUI Appeal - Trial Taxes and LIDAR in Vermont

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State of Vermont v. de Macedo Soares, --- A.3d ----, 2011 WL 2091122 (Vt.), 2011 VT 56 is not a DUI - it is a speeding LIDAR case. However, the challenges raised may help DUI/DWI attorneys. Here, the defense challenged the legality of a system where those who went to trial were required to pay more than those who pleaded guilty. Defendant first argued that the traffic citation was unconstitutional because: (1) the penalty range applies only when a defendant chooses to maintain a constitutionally protected right to challenge the citation; (2) the $50 in court costs is assessed only if a defendant is found guilty following a hearing; (3) the waiver amount is an improper incentive to settle that chills a defendant's right to challenge a citation; (4) the solicitation of a guilty plea violates the principle of a presumption of innocence; and (5) the process for issuing a citation does not assure a knowing and intelligent waiver of constitutional rights.



The Vermont court acknowledged that the arguments had merit, but ultimately declined to find in the defendant's favor, stating as follows:

"Defendant was cited for a civil traffic violation, not a criminal offense; therefore, the principal cases he relies on to support his constitutional arguments— United States v. Jackson, 390 U.S. 570 (1968) and Veilleux v. Springer, 131 Vt. 33, 300 A.2d 620 (1973)—are inapposite. In Jackson, the Supreme Court struck down the death penalty clause of the Federal Kidnapping Act, which allowed the death penalty to be imposed only on those defendants who were found guilty after pleading not guilty and requesting a jury trial. 390 U.S. at 585. The Court concluded that applying the death penalty only to defendants who assert their right to contest their guilt before a jury unconstitutionally chilled defendants' right to plead not guilty and to demand a jury trial. Id. at 581. In Veilleux, we applied the Jackson rationale to strike down a statute that provided for a six-month driver's license suspension only for defendants who pled not guilty after being charged with driving while intoxicated. 131 Vt. at 38–39, 300 A.2d at 624. We emphasized that the provision could not pass constitutional muster because the license suspension “falls only upon those who exercise the fundamental right to plead not guilty to a criminal charge upon which the constitutional rights guaranteed to a defendant in criminal proceeding are contingent.” Id. at 40, 300 A.2d at 625."

Insofar as the LIDAR Frye issue (which was also raised) was concerned, the court also found againt the defendant:

"Before the traffic bureau, defendant moved to dismiss all evidence concerning use of laser technology for “lack of foundation” because “there is no judicial notice of laser.” In making this argument, defendant cited an Illinois appellate court case rejecting a trial court's judicial notice of an evidentiary hearing held in an unrelated trial court case in which the court found the use of a laser device to be generally accepted. See People v. Canulli, 792 N.E.2d 438, 444–45 (Ill.App.Ct.2003). On appeal, in a one-sentence argument, defendant asserts that the court erred in admitting the LIDAR results because radar and LIDAR are not the same, no Vermont authorities confirm the reliability or admissibility of LIDAR technology, and the district court did not give “judicial notice” of the reliability of the technology. We find no merit to this argument. Defendant has not identified any evidence suggesting that the LIDAR device incorporates a novel technology or is significantly different from or less accurate than other speed-detection devices. Indeed, several jurisdictions, including Illinois, have held that the reliability of this technology has been sufficiently demonstrated to allow its introduction into evidence without first holding an underlying evidentiary hearing on its reliability. See, e.g., State v. Williamson, 166 P.3d 387, 389–90 (Idaho Ct.App.2007) (citing other jurisdictions that have accepted general reliability of laser device in support of holding “that laser speed detection devices are generally reliable and their results may be admitted into evidence in Idaho courts” without either taking specific judicial notice or requiring scientific evidence of laser's reliability); People v. Mann, 922 N.E.2d 533, 537–38 (Ill.App.Ct.2010) (concluding that decisions from other jurisdictions “are ample authority that the use of LIDAR to measure the speed of moving vehicles is based on generally accepted scientific principles”). Defendant's reliance upon Canulli is unavailing insofar as the appellate court in that case reversed the trial court because it had relied upon an inadequately litigated, nonbinding decision in another trial court case involving a different type of laser technology from the technology being challenged in Canulli. See Mann, 922 N.E.2d at 535–36; Canulli, 792 N.E.2d at 444–45. Accordingly, the hearing officer did not abuse his discretion in admitting results from the use of the LIDAR laser device without first holding an evidentiary hearing on the device's reliability.

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DUI Appeal - Sobriety Tests Inadmissible in Per Se Case Says Ohio Court

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The below case was provided to DAD thanks to the watchful eyes (and summary) of NCDD member Jeff Meadows. He has provided the summary below:



State v. Henricksson

4/4/2011

2011-Ohio-1632

12th District Court of Appeals



Document QUICK LINK: View Court Published Official Document



Issues: HGN, video, admissibility, 4511.19(A)(1)(h)



Case Summary Overview:

D was stopped for weaving within her lane and changing lanes without signaling. Ultimately she was arrested for OVI and charged with A1a and A1h. Her MTS was denied and the case was tried to the court - whereupon the prosecutor dismissed the A1a and went forward with ONLY the A1h charge.



During trial, the Defense tried to offer evidence of the HGN and cruiser-cam video, but the State objected and the court sustained the objection. Defendant was convicted and sentenced to the high tier penalties. This appeal followed raising many issues but of particular importance is the issue of admissibility of the HGN and video on a PER SE trial.



HELD: The 12th District affirmed holding: "..the state was only required to prove two elements; namely, that appellant was operating a vehicle within the state, and that, at the time of the offense, she had a concentration of .17 of one gram or more by weight of alcohol per 210 liters of her breath." "See State v. Jobe (July 13, 1998), Clermont App. No. CA97-10-083, at 4-5; State v.

Knapke, Franklin App. No. 08AP-933, 2009-Ohio-2989, ¶8. As a result, because these two facts are the only facts of consequence in this case, the HGN test results, as well as the

video taken from Trooper Bierer''s in-dash camera, are not relevant in prosecuting a violation of R.C. 4811.19(A)(1)(h), and therefore, not admissible.1 See State v. Boyd (1985), 18 Ohio St.3d 30, 31; see, also, State v. Obhof, Franklin App. No. 07AP-324, 2007-Ohio-5661, ¶16; Evid.R. 402."



They also include an interesting footnote that states: "It should be noted, however, that appellant could have challenged the accuracy of her specific breathalyzer test result by introducing evidence showing "something went wrong with [the] test and consequently, the result

was at variance with what the approved testing procedure should have produced." Columbus v. Aleshire, 187

Ohio App.3d 660, 2010-Ohio-2773, ¶24, 27; see, also, State v. Tanner (1984), 15 Ohio St.3d 1, 6 ("[a] defendant

may still challenge the accuracy of his specific test results, although he may not challenge the general accuracy

of the legislatively determined test procedure as a valid scientific means of determining blood alcohol levels")."



This commentator finds it interesting that the footnote references the "legislatively determined test procedures" since there are NO LEGISLATIVELY DETERMINED TEST PROCEDURES!!!



This commentator also believes this case can be used to open, or at least unlock the VEGA door since the OSC in VEGA stated: "...Rebuttable evidence may include non-technical evidence of sobriety, such as a videotape..." "...and the completion of field sobriety tests." 12 Ohio St.3d 185, 189.





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DWI Appeal - Minnesota Source Code Expert Disallowed

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In State of Minnesota v. Hamblin, Not Reported in N.W.2d, 2011 WL 1833089 (Minn.App.) the defense sought funds to provide for an expert to attack the source code of the Intoxilyzer 5000EN. The trial court denied the motion.



On appeal, the court first stated the applicable law:

"In Minnesota, an indigent defendant may request funding from the district court for necessary expert-witness services. Minn.Stat. § 611.21(a) (2010). On finding that the requested services are necessary, “the court shall authorize counsel to obtain the services on behalf of the defendant.” Id. The burden of making a threshold showing to the district court of the need for expert assistance is on the defendant. State v. Volker, 477 N.W.2d 909, 911 (Minn.App.1991). A defendant must give specific reasons for needing an expert. Id.; State v. Richards, 495 N.W.2d 187, 197–98 (Minn.1992) (stating defendant must present trial court with some specific evidence that expert's testimony is necessary to the defense).

Hamblin argued he needed an expert to make a threshold showing to support his request for production of the Intoxilyzer 5000EN source code. He claimed that because expert services are required for such a request, the court's refusal to grant funds for an expert denied him the right to a fair trial.

The court responded as follows:

"Hamblin accurately asserts that in order to comply with State v.. Underdahl, 767 N.W.2d 677 (Minn.2009) ( Underdahl II ), he needed to obtain expert services. The district court's denial of Hamblin's original motion for discovery of the Intoxilyzer 5000EN source code preceded Underdahl II. Since Underdahl II, we have yet to conclude that a discovery motion seeking an Intoxilyzer source code is sufficient without testimony or an affidavit from an expert witness.FN1 Each time this court has found a denial of a pretrial discovery motion seeking Intoxilyzer source codes to be an abuse of discretion, the appellant has supported the motion with testimony or an affidavit by an expert. See, e.g., State v. Granse, No. A09–2192, 2010 WL 4451243 (Minn.App. Nov. 9, 2010); Scholl, No. A08–2138; Lund, 2009 WL 1587135. Retaining an expert, however, does not guarantee a discovery motion will be granted. Underdahl II requires a “plausible showing” that the Intoxilyzer source code “would be both material and favorable” to appellant. 767 N.W.2d at 684.

In denying the appeal, the court found:

"The extent of Hamblin's argument to the district court in the record on appeal is his attorney's remarks at trial, in which he stated Hamblin requested funds for “a computer forensic expert to evaluate or challenge the results of the Intoxilyzer 5000.” Put another way, it was a “pre- Underdahl II ” argument. Hamblin did not specify why the expert would be necessary to aid Hamblin's defense at trial. The record is barren of any information necessary to determine whether the district court abused its discretion in refusing Hamblin expert-witness fees. We affirm on that issue."

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Cop Pulls Over Drunk Guy in Moto Gear

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Mitsubishi Pajero Dakar 2012

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Agora nacional, o belíssimo SUV da marca japonesa ganha produção nacional, na cidade de Catalão (GO), e com isso um preço de R$ 134.990. O modelo continua o mesmo, mas ganhou alguns itens interessantes, em comparação com o antigo fabricado na Tailândia.

O pacote de equipamentos continua interessante e sempre levando sete pessoas: vem com sistema de som multimídia com DVD player, tração nas quatro rodas, ar-condicionado digital com aparelho independente para a terceira fileira e sensor de chuva, e novas rodas. Mas a melhor novidade é mesmo o GPS integrado ao painel, que já vem com mais de 1.250 cidades mapeadas.

Sua cabine ganhou revestimento na nova cor Premium Black, o que inclui os bancos de couro e tecido pretos. E falando em cores, a linha 2012 do Pajero Dakar trouxe simplesmente sete opções novas para o exterior: Branco Alpino, Cinza Londrino, Prata Rodhium e Tecno, Preto Ônix, Verde Pantanal e Vermelho Bordeaux. O motor é o V6 3.5 flex de até 205 cv e 33,5 kgfm.

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